The HousingCoach at Fathom Realty
The HousingCoach
What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Rise in New Home Inventory

What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Rise in New Home Inventory

by | Aug 28, 2025

What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Rise in New Home Inventory Simplifying The Market

You may have seen talk online that new home inventory is at its highest level since the crash. And if you lived through the crash back in 2008, seeing new construction is up again may feel a little scary.

But here’s what you need to remember: a lot of what you see online is designed to get clicks. So, you may not be getting the full story. A closer look at the data and a little expert insight can change your perspective completely.

Why This Isn’t Like 2008

While it’s true the number of new homes on the market hit its highest level since the crash, that’s not a reason to worry. That’s because new builds are just one piece of the puzzle. They don’t tell the full story of what’s happening today.

To get the real picture of how much inventory we have and how it compares to the surplus we saw back then, you’ve got to look at both new homes and existing homes (homes that were lived in by a previous owner).

When you combine those two numbers, it’s clear overall supply looks very different today than it did around the crash (see graph below):

So, saying we’re near 2008 levels for new construction isn’t the same as the inventory surplus we did the last time.

Builders Have Actually Underbuilt for Over a Decade

And here’s some other important perspective you’re not going to get from those headlines. After the 2008 crash, builders slammed on the brakes. For 15 years, they didn’t build enough homes to keep up with demand. That long stretch of underbuilding created a major housing shortage, which we’re still dealing with today.

The graph below uses Census data to show the overbuilding leading up to the crash (in red), and the period of underbuilding that followed (in orange):

a graph of a number of unitsBasically, we had more than 15 straight years of underbuilding – and we’re only recently starting to slowly climb out of that hole. But there’s still a long way to go (even with the growth we’ve seen lately). Experts at Realtor.com say it would roughly 7.5 years to build enough homes to close the gap.

Of course, like anything else in real estate, the level of supply and demand is going to vary by market. Some markets may have more homes for sale, some less. But nationally, this isn’t like the last time.

Bottom Line

Just because there are more new homes for sale right now, it doesn’t mean we’re headed for a crash. The data shows today’s overall inventory situation is different.

If you have questions or want to talk about what builders are doing in your area, connect with a local agent.

History Shows the Housing Market Always Recovers

History Shows the Housing Market Always Recovers

by | Aug 27, 2025

History Shows the Housing Market Always Recovers Simplifying The Market

Now that the market is slowing down, homeowners who haven’t sold at the price they were hoping for are increasingly pulling their homes off the market. According to the latest data from Realtor.com, the number of homeowners taking their homes off the market is up 38% since the start of this year and 48% since the same time last June. For every 100 new listings in June, about 21 homes were taken off the market.

And if you’ve made that same choice, you’re probably frustrated things didn’t go the way you wanted. It’s hard when you feel like the market isn’t working with you. But while slowdowns can be painful in the moment, history tells us they don’t last forever.

History Repeats Itself: Proof from the Past

This isn’t the first time the housing market has experienced a slowdown. Here are some other notable times when home sales dropped significantly:

  • 1980s: When mortgage rates climbed past 18%, buyers stopped cold. Sales crawled for years. But as soon as rates came down, sales surged back, and the market found its footing again.
  • 2008: The Great Financial Crisis was one of the toughest housing downturns in history. Sales and prices both dropped hard. Still, sales rebounded once the economy recovered.
  • 2020: During COVID, sales disappeared overnight, and many people had to put their plans on hold. Yet the recovery was faster than anyone expected, with a surge of buyers re-entering the market as soon as restrictions eased.

The lesson is clear: no matter the cause, the market always rebounds.

Today’s Situation: Where We Stand Now

Over the past few years, home sales have been sluggish. And one big reason why is affordability. Mortgage rates rose at a record-breaking pace in 2022, and home prices were climbing at the same time. That combination put buying out of reach for many people. And when demand slows, home sales do too.

The Outlook: Why Things Will Improve

But here’s the encouraging part. Forecasts show sales are expected to pick up again moving into 2026.

Last year, just about 4 million homes sold (shown in gray in the graph below). And this year is looking very similar (shown in blue). But the average of the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) show the experts believe there will be around 4.6 million home sales in 2026 (shown in green).

And a big reason behind that projection is the expectation that mortgage rates will come down a bit, making it easier for more buyers to jump back in.

a graph of salesThat means what’s happening now is part of a cycle we’ve seen before. Every slowdown in the past has eventually given way to more activity, and this one will too.

Just like the 1980s, 2008, and 2020, today’s dip in home sales is temporary.

What That Means for You

If you’ve paused your moving plans, you did what you thought was right. Your frustration is valid. But it’s also important to remember the bigger picture. Housing slowdowns don’t last forever.

That’s where your local real estate agent comes in. Their job is to keep a close eye on the market for you. When the first signs of a rebound appear, they’ll help you spot the shift early so you can relist with confidence.

Bottom Line

If today’s housing market feels stuck, remember it’s never stayed down for good. Slowdowns end, activity returns, and people get moving again. So, connect with a local real estate agent, because when the next wave of buyers shows up, you won’t want to miss it.

As activity picks up again, will you be ready to put your house back on the market, or do you need to move sooner?

Should You Still Expect a Bidding War?

Should You Still Expect a Bidding War?

by | Aug 25, 2025

Should You Still Expect a Bidding War? Simplifying The Market

If you’re still worried about having to deal with a bidding war when you buy a home, you may be able to let some of that fear go.

While multiple-offer situations haven’t disappeared entirely, they’re not nearly as common as they used to be. In fact, a recent survey shows agents reported only 1 in 5 homes (20%) nationally received multiple offers in June 2025.

That’s down from nearly 1 in 3 (31%) just a year ago – and dramatically lower than in June 2023 (39%) (see graph below):

a graph of a number of blue and green barsThis trend means you should face less competition when you buy. That gives you more time to make decisions and the ability to negotiate price or terms.

It Still Depends on Where You’re Buying

Of course, national trends don’t tell the full story. Local dynamics matter, a lot. This second graph uses survey data from John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) to break things down by region to prove just how true that is. It shows, while the share of homes getting multiple offers has dropped pretty much everywhere, some areas are still seeing more offers than others:

a graph with numbers and textIn the Northeast, 34% of homes (roughly 1 in 3) are still receiving multiple offers. That’s more than the national average. But in Southeast, that number drops to just 6%. 

What’s behind the difference? In general, the areas still seeing bidding wars tend to have lower-than-normal inventory. That imbalance between buyers and available homes keeps pressure on prices and competition. But markets with more listings are seeing conditions cool – and that means fewer bidding wars. 

Sellers Are More Flexible Than You Might Think

Here’s another shift to show you just how much things have changed. According to a Redfin report, almost half of sellers are offering concessions, like covering their buyer’s closing costs or dropping their asking price to get their house sold.

That’s a clear sign this isn’t the same ultra-competitive market we saw a few years ago. Back then, sellers rarely compromised. And buyers often waived their inspection or appraisal to try to make their offer stand out. Now, things are different.

But again, how often this is happening is going to vary based on where you’re looking to buy. And that’s why you need a local agent’s expertise.

Bottom Line

If concerns about bidding wars have been holding you back, it may be time to take another look. Nationally, competition is down. In some markets, it’s down significantly. And with more sellers offering concessions, buyers today have more power and flexibility than they’ve had in a long time.

Want to find out what the market looks like where you’re buying? Connect with a local agent.

From Frenzy to Breathing Room: Buyers Finally Have Time Again

From Frenzy to Breathing Room: Buyers Finally Have Time Again

by | Aug 21, 2025

From Frenzy to Breathing Room: Buyers Finally Have Time Again Simplifying The Market

If you tried to buy a home a few years ago, you probably still remember the frenzy. Homes were listed one day and gone the next. Sometimes it only took hours. You had to drop everything to go and see the house, and if you hesitated even slightly, someone else swooped in and bought it – sometimes even sight unseen.

That kind of intensity pushed a lot of buyers to the sidelines. It was stressful, chaotic, and for many, really discouraging.

But here’s what you need to know: those days are behind us.

Today’s market is moving slower, in the best possible way. And that’s creating more opportunity for buyers who felt shut out in recent years.

The Stat That Changes Everything

According to the latest data, homes are spending an average of 58 days on the market. That’s much more normal. And it’s a big improvement compared to the height of the pandemic, when homes were flying off the shelves in a matter of days (see graph below):

a graph of blue bars with white textThat means you now have more time to make decisions than you have at any point in the past five years. And that’s a big deal. Now, you’ve got:

Time to think.

Time to negotiate.

Time to make a smart move without all the pressure.

More Time Means Less Stress (and More Leverage)

Based on the data in the graph above, you have an extra week to decide compared to last year. And nearly double the time you would have had at the market’s peak.

Back then, fear of missing out drove buyers to act fast, sometimes too fast. Today, the pace is slower, which means you’re in control. As Bankrate puts it:

“For years, buyers have been racing to snag homes because of the fierce competition. But the market’s cooled off a bit now, and that gives buyers some breathing room. Homes are staying listed longer, so buyers can slow down, weigh their options and make more confident decisions.”

With more homes on the market and fewer buyers racing to grab them, the balance has shifted. Bidding wars aren’t as common, and that means you may have room to negotiate. And you can actually take a breath before you make your decision.

More listings + a slower pace = less stress and more opportunity

But, and this is important, it still depends on where you’re buying. Nationally, homes are moving slower. But your local market sets your real pace. Some states are moving faster than others. It may even vary down to the specific zip code or neighborhood you’re looking at. And that’s why working with an agent to know what’s happening in your area is more important than ever. 

To see how your state compares to the national average (58 days), check out the map below:

a map of the united statesAs Realtor.com explains:

“While national headlines might suggest a buyer’s market is taking hold, the reality on the ground depends heavily on where and what you’re trying to buy. Local trends can diverge sharply from national averages, especially when you factor in price range, property type, and post-pandemic market dynamics.”

A smart local agent can tell you exactly when to move fast and when you can take your time, so you never miss the right home for you.

Bottom Line

If the chaos of the past few years drove you to hit pause, this is your green light. The market’s pace has shifted. You have more time. More options. More power.

And with the right agent guiding you, you’re in the best position you’ve been in for years.

Connect with a local agent to talk about what the pace looks like in your area, and if now could be the right time for you to re-enter the market.

Condos Could Be a Win for Today’s Buyers

Condos Could Be a Win for Today’s Buyers

by | Aug 20, 2025

Condos Could Be a Win for Today’s Buyers Simplifying The Market

Not every homebuyer wants the biggest house on the block. Some want something simpler, more affordable, and easier to maintain, especially in a market where every dollar counts. That’s where condos come in.

For first-time buyers, they can be a smart way to get into homeownership without stretching your budget. For downsizers, they offer less space to maintain with the flexibility to stay in a great location.

And right now, condos are one of the most buyer-friendly parts of the market.

Condo Inventory Is Up, And That Means More Choice

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there are 194,000 condos for sale right now. That’s the second highest amount we’ve seen in the last three years (see graph below):

a graph of blue lines with white text

Just remember, this is the national figure. The exact number is going to vary based on where you’re looking to buy. But, generally speaking, you have more options and less competition.

You’re not stuck waiting for something to pop up or rushing into an offer just to beat someone else to it. You’ve got plenty to choose from. And if you’re particular about layout, location, or amenities, this is your chance to be selective.

That’s a big shift from the market frenzy of just a few years ago. Compared to early 2022, we’ve got nearly double the condos available now. That gives you more breathing room to find the right fit.

Prices Are Cooling, and Buyers Hold More Negotiating Power

And since there are more for sale, many sellers are more open to negotiating right now. So, you may be able to get a better price. As Redfin explains:

“. . . condo buyers in many cities may be able to find sellers who are willing to give concessions and/or sell for less than their asking price.”

Condo prices are starting to ease in many markets. According to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), condo prices dipped 1.3% in June compared to last year. And over half of the top 100 U.S. metros saw condo prices drop slightly year-over-year.

Data from Redfin shows what the recent dip in prices looks like (see graph below):

a graph showing the price of a sales increaseThat doesn’t just help with affordability, it also shifts the power dynamic. Condo buyers in many markets are now in a position to negotiate on price and ask for concessions, like help with closing costs.

Bottom Line

Condos aren’t just a fallback option. In today’s market, they’re one of the most strategic ways to buy. With more options, softening prices, and more room to negotiate, now could be the right time to make your move.

Could a condo check more boxes than you expected? Talk through your options with a local real estate agent and find out.

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