History Shows the Housing Market Always Recovers

History Shows the Housing Market Always Recovers

History Shows the Housing Market Always Recovers Simplifying The Market

Now that the market is slowing down, homeowners who haven’t sold at the price they were hoping for are increasingly pulling their homes off the market. According to the latest data from Realtor.com, the number of homeowners taking their homes off the market is up 38% since the start of this year and 48% since the same time last June. For every 100 new listings in June, about 21 homes were taken off the market.

And if you’ve made that same choice, you’re probably frustrated things didn’t go the way you wanted. It’s hard when you feel like the market isn’t working with you. But while slowdowns can be painful in the moment, history tells us they don’t last forever.

History Repeats Itself: Proof from the Past

This isn’t the first time the housing market has experienced a slowdown. Here are some other notable times when home sales dropped significantly:

  • 1980s: When mortgage rates climbed past 18%, buyers stopped cold. Sales crawled for years. But as soon as rates came down, sales surged back, and the market found its footing again.
  • 2008: The Great Financial Crisis was one of the toughest housing downturns in history. Sales and prices both dropped hard. Still, sales rebounded once the economy recovered.
  • 2020: During COVID, sales disappeared overnight, and many people had to put their plans on hold. Yet the recovery was faster than anyone expected, with a surge of buyers re-entering the market as soon as restrictions eased.

The lesson is clear: no matter the cause, the market always rebounds.

Today’s Situation: Where We Stand Now

Over the past few years, home sales have been sluggish. And one big reason why is affordability. Mortgage rates rose at a record-breaking pace in 2022, and home prices were climbing at the same time. That combination put buying out of reach for many people. And when demand slows, home sales do too.

The Outlook: Why Things Will Improve

But here’s the encouraging part. Forecasts show sales are expected to pick up again moving into 2026.

Last year, just about 4 million homes sold (shown in gray in the graph below). And this year is looking very similar (shown in blue). But the average of the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) show the experts believe there will be around 4.6 million home sales in 2026 (shown in green).

And a big reason behind that projection is the expectation that mortgage rates will come down a bit, making it easier for more buyers to jump back in.

a graph of salesThat means what’s happening now is part of a cycle we’ve seen before. Every slowdown in the past has eventually given way to more activity, and this one will too.

Just like the 1980s, 2008, and 2020, today’s dip in home sales is temporary.

What That Means for You

If you’ve paused your moving plans, you did what you thought was right. Your frustration is valid. But it’s also important to remember the bigger picture. Housing slowdowns don’t last forever.

That’s where your local real estate agent comes in. Their job is to keep a close eye on the market for you. When the first signs of a rebound appear, they’ll help you spot the shift early so you can relist with confidence.

Bottom Line

If today’s housing market feels stuck, remember it’s never stayed down for good. Slowdowns end, activity returns, and people get moving again. So, connect with a local real estate agent, because when the next wave of buyers shows up, you won’t want to miss it.

As activity picks up again, will you be ready to put your house back on the market, or do you need to move sooner?

Home Price Forecasts for the Second Half of 2025

Home Price Forecasts for the Second Half of 2025

Home Price Forecasts for the Second Half of 2025 Simplifying The Market

a screenshot of a phone

Some Highlights

  • With all the headlines circulating recently, you may be wondering what’s next for home prices? Here’s what the expert forecasts say.
  • Home prices are still forecast to rise nationally this year, just at a much slower pace. But price trends are going to vary by area.
  • To have a quick conversation about what’s happening in your local market, connect with a real estate agent.
Housing Market Forecasts for the Rest of 2025

Housing Market Forecasts for the Rest of 2025

Housing Market Forecasts for the Rest of 2025 Simplifying The Market

If you’ve been watching the market, you’ve likely noticed a few changes already this year. But what’s next? From home prices to mortgage rates, here’s what the latest expert forecasts suggest for the rest of 2025 – and what these shifts could mean for you.

Will Home Prices Fall?

Many buyers are hoping home prices will come down soon. And recent headlines about prices dipping in some areas are making some people believe it’s just a matter of time before there’s a bigger drop. But here are the facts.

While home price growth is slowing down, that doesn’t mean we’re headed for a crash. As NAHB explains:

“House price growth slowed . . . partly due to a decline in demand and an increase in supply. Persistent high mortgage rates and increased inventory combined to ease upward pressure on house prices. These factors signaled a cooling market, following rapid gains seen in previous years.”

But experts say, even with that slowdown, prices will still rise this year at the national level. The average of 8 leading forecasters shows prices are expected to go up 1.5-2% in 2025 (see graph below):

That means, if you’re waiting for a major drop, experts agree that’s just not in the cards.

Keep in mind, while some markets are already seeing prices come down slightly, the average dip is just -3.5%. That’s a far cry from the nearly 20% decline the market experienced during the 2008 crash.

Plus, those small changes are easily absorbed when you consider how much home prices have climbed over the past few years. Data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows prices are up 55% nationally compared to just 5 years ago.

The takeaway? Prices aren’t crashing. They’re expected to keep climbing – just not as quickly these days. And some may argue they’ll be closer to flat by the end of this year. But, again, this is going to vary by market, with some local ups and downs. So, lean on a pro to see the latest price trends for your area.

Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

Another common thought among today’s buyers is: I’m just going to wait for rates to come down. But is that a smart strategy? According to Yahoo Finance:

“If you’re looking for a substantial interest rate drop in 2025, you’ll likely be left waiting. The latest news from the Federal Reserve and other key economic data point toward steady mortgage rates on par with what we see today.”

In other words, don’t try to time the market or wait for a drop that may not be coming. Most experts say rates will remain in the 6s, and current projections have them settling in the mid-6% range by the end of this year (see chart below):

a blue rectangular table with white textAnd that’s not a big change from where they are right now. So, if you need to move, let’s talk about how to make it happen and what you should watch for. Because while rates may not be as low as you want them to be, you don’t want to put your needs on the back burner, hoping for something the data shows isn’t likely to happen.

Working with an expert who is keeping an eye on all the economic factors that can influence mortgage rates is going to be essential this year. That’s because changes in things like inflation and other key drivers could impact how rates move going forward. 

The Takeaway for Buyers and Sellers

Whether you’re buying, selling, or thinking about doing both, this market requires strategy, not guesswork. Prices are still rising nationally (just more slowly), and rates are projected to stay pretty much where they are, so the bigger picture is one of moderation – not a meltdown.

Bottom Line

If you want to make a move, your best bet is to focus on your personal situation – not what the headlines say – and work with a real estate pro who knows how to navigate the shifting conditions in your local market.

 

Connect with a local agent to go over what’s happening in your area and build a plan that works for you.

The Latest Mortgage Rate Forecasts

The Latest Mortgage Rate Forecasts

The Latest Mortgage Rate Forecasts Simplifying The Market

a screenshot of a graph

Some Highlights

  • If you’re tempted to delay your move in hope that mortgage rates will come down, you may want to rethink that strategy based on the latest forecast.
  • Experts say mortgage rates are projected to stay in the 6s this year. So don’t expect a big drop.
  • If you want to talk about what this means for your move, connect with a real estate agent. As forecasts change, having an expert who can keep you updated is essential.
The Truth About Where Home Prices Are Heading

The Truth About Where Home Prices Are Heading

The Truth About Where Home Prices Are Heading Simplifying The Market

There are plenty of headlines these days calling for a housing market crash. But the truth is, they’re not telling the full story. Here’s what’s actually happening, and what the experts project for home prices over the next 5 years. And spoiler alert – it’s not a crash.

Yes, in some local markets, prices are flattening or even dipping slightly this year as more homes hit the market. That’s normal with rising inventory. But the bigger picture is what really matters, and it’s far less dramatic than what the doom-and-gloom headlines suggest. Here’s why.

Over 100 leading housing market experts were surveyed in the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their collective forecast shows prices are projected to keep rising over the next 5 years, just at a slower, healthier pace than what we’ve seen more recently. And that kind of steady, sustainable growth should be one factor to help ease your fears about the years ahead (see graph below):

a graph with green barsAnd if you take a look at how the various experts responded within the survey, they fall into three main categories: those that were most optimistic about the forecast, most pessimistic, and the overall average outlook.

Here’s what the breakdown shows:

  • The average projection is about 3.3% price growth per year, through 2029.
  • The optimists see growth closer to 5.0% per year.
  • The pessimists still forecast about 1.3% growth per year.

Do they all agree on the same number? Of course not. But here’s the key takeaway: not one expert group is calling for a major national decline or a crash. Instead, they expect home prices to rise at a steady, more sustainable pace.

That’s much healthier for the market – and for you. Yes, some areas may see prices hold relatively flat or dip a bit in the short term, especially where inventory is on the rise. Others may appreciate faster than the national average because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers trying to purchase them. But overall, more moderate price growth is cooling the rapid spikes we saw during the frenzy of the past few years.

And remember, even the most conservative experts still project prices will rise over the course of the next 5 years. That’s also because foreclosures are low, lending standards are in check, and homeowners have near record equity to boost the stability of the market. Together, those factors help prevent a wave of forced sales, like the kind that could drag prices down. So, if you’re waiting for a significant crash before you buy, you might be waiting quite a long time.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been on the fence about your plans, now’s the time to get clarity. The market isn’t heading for a crash – it’s on track for steady, slow, long-term growth overall, with some regional ups and downs along the way.

Want to know what that means for your neighborhood? Because national trends set the tone, but what really matters is what’s happening in your zip code. Connect with a real estate agent to have a quick conversation so you can see exactly what the local data means for you. 

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of 2025

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of 2025

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of 2025 Simplifying The Market

a screenshot of a mobile app

Some Highlights

  • Are you wondering what to expect if you buy or sell a home in the second half of the year? Here’s what the expert forecasts tell you.
  • Mortgage rates are expected to come down slightly. There will be more homes available for sale. And as inventory rises, home price growth will moderate.
  • Want to know what this could mean for your plans? Connect with a local agent and talk through it together.

Pin It on Pinterest