You’ve probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that’s true – nationally. But zoom in on individual markets across the country, and the picture looks completely different depending on where you are.

Some areas are still seeing solid price growth. Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what’s causing all of that variation? 

It All Comes Down to Inventory

Here’s the simple version:

1. When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options.

2. More options, means less competition.

3. Less competition means sellers can’t push prices as high.

On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up.

That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country. 

Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are still seeing prices rise. As Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub, puts it:

“Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest.

In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing.”

The Maps Say It All 

Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019. In most places (the states in gray below), inventory still falls short of where we were back then. And that’s exactly why prices are climbing, albeit moderately, in the vast majority of states.

But you’re probably more interested in where prices are falling a bit, since that’s what is making headlines. So, let’s prove out how much inventory affects prices in those spots.

According to Realtor.com, 15 states and Washington, D.C. are now back above pre-pandemic inventory levels, and some by a wide margin (see the orange in the map below):

Now, let’s look at the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data to see what’s happened to home prices in those same states over the past year (again, you’ll want to focus on the orange in the next map). 

See how those line up pretty closely with the areas seeing more homes for sale today?

The overlap isn’t a coincidence. It’s cause and effect. 

The national average of 1.7% price growth is accurate, but it’s an average of two very different stories happening at the same time – the few areas experiencing mild declines and the overwhelming majority that are still seeing prices rise.

What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling 

If you’re a buyer, the market you’re shopping in matters a lot right now. In places like Texas, Colorado, or Florida, you may have real negotiating power – more choices, less competition, and sellers who are more motivated to make a deal. In tighter markets like much of the Northeast, you’re still likely facing a lot of competition.

If you’re a seller, pricing strategy is everything. In markets where inventory has risen, overpricing is one of the fastest ways to linger on the market and eventually sell for less than you would have with the right price from day one. In markets where inventory is still low, you’re in a strong spot, but getting your price right still matters if you want to attract serious buyers quickly. Either way, that’s where a local real estate agent earns their keep.

Bottom Line

When it comes to prices, where you are matters more than ever right now, and a local real estate agent is the best person to help you make sense of it.

Reach out to a local real estate agent today and work together to build a plan that fits your market.

A lot of people who want to move are telling themselves the same thing: “Maybe I’ll just wait until later this year once things calm down.” 

While waiting sounds like a good plan, there’s something worth knowing before you decide. Rates aren’t expected to change much, so if that’s the #1 reason you’re waiting, it may not pay off. And there may be other things you miss out on in the meantime. 

Historically, Summer is one of the strongest seasons of the year for both buyers and sellers. And if you delay your move until Fall or Winter, some of those opportunities may already be fading.

Buyers: Fresh Inventory Is Your Real Summer Advantage

One of the biggest frustrations buyers have faced over the past few years has been a lack of affordable options. Maybe you’ve run into that yourself:

• You find a house you like, but it’s out of your budget.

• You find something in your budget, but you don’t like it.

• Or worse, nothing interesting hits the market for weeks.

Historically, Summer helps with that.

Looking at data from the last few years, Summer months consistently bring more sellers into the market than later in the year. And that gives buyers a real window of fresh choices.

According to Realtor.com, any given Summer month typically sees about 32% more fresh options than the average month from September-December.

With more newly listed homes, there’s a better chance of finding one you like where the numbers actually work.

Because all it really takes is one home to completely change your search. And if you’ve got more popping onto the market to choose from, maybe one of those is exactly what you need. 

But keep in mind, this seasonal window isn’t open forever. Fresh inventory tends to slow down once Summer ends.

Many homeowners who planned to sell this year have already listed by then. Families who wanted to move before school starts have often already gotten it done, or at least, set it into motion. So, new listing activity usually cools as we head into Fall and Winter.

Of course, every year is different. But if finding the right home at the right price has been your biggest challenge, waiting until later in the year may not necessarily give you more options. In fact, recent history suggests it may do just the opposite.

Sellers: Homes Usually Sell for More in the Summer

If you’re thinking of selling, you may be considering holding off because you’ve seen headlines about lower asking prices, price cuts, and softer conditions in some markets. But those headlines don’t tell the whole story or convey just how much it varies by area.

Here’s what you really need to know. Even though the market’s becoming more balanced and some pockets are experiencing price declines, that doesn’t mean you’ve missed your chance to sell. 

Seasonality can still work in your favor no matter where you are. And this Summer could still give you the chance to sell for a good price.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), homes sold during a Summer month usually sell for about 4% more than homes sold during the typical month from September-December:

Why? Summer buyers are usually operating on a set timeframe. They’re trying to move before the next school year or when they have more PTO and warmer weather to tour houses. That urgency can translate into better offers.

Now, that doesn’t mean you should price your house 4% higher this Summer. That would actually be a mistake in today’s market.

It just means if you’re looking to get as much for your house as you reasonably can, a Summer move could be a smarter play than waiting until later this year. 

Because based on typical seasonality, you may get more for your house than you would if you waited until the Fall or Winter (when there are typically fewer buyers active).

And if you’re considering a move anyway, that’s worth factoring in.

Bottom Line

Could waiting until later this year work out? Sure. But it’s important to understand what you may gain by moving now too – that way you have the full picture before you decide.

If a 2026 move is on your radar, talk to an agent about what matters most to you. Depending on your priorities, Summer could be your moment.