Home Prices | The HousingCoach

What Will It Take for Prices To Come Down?

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Dec 10, 2024

You may be wondering if home prices are going to crash. And believe it or not, some people might even be hoping this happens so they can finally purchase a more affordable home. But experts agree that’s not what’s in the cards – and here’s why.

There are more people who want to buy a home than there are homes available to purchase. That’s what drives prices up.

Let’s break that down and explore why, nationally, home prices aren’t going to be coming down anytime soon.

Prices Depend on Supply and Demand

The housing market works like any other market – when demand is high and supply is low, prices rise.

According to the latest estimates, the U.S. is facing a housing shortfall of several million homes. That means there are far more people looking to buy (demand) than there are homes for sale (supply). That mismatch is the key reason why prices won’t fall at the national level. As David Childers, President of Keeping Current Matters (KCM), puts it:

“The main driving force on pricing is the limited amount of inventory in most markets across the country. That issue is not going to be solved overnight or in the next twelve months.”

How Did We Get Here?

For over 15 years, homebuilders haven’t been building enough homes to keep up with buyer demand. After the 2008 housing crisis, homebuilding slowed significantly, and it’s only recently started to recover (see graph below):

Even with new construction on the rise over the past few years, builders are playing catch-up. And according to AmericanProgress.org, they’re still not even keeping up with today’s demand, let alone making up for years of underbuilding.

And as long as there’s a housing shortage, home prices will remain steady or increase in most areas.

What About Next Year?

The majority of experts agree prices will keep rising next year, but at a much slower, healthier pace (see graph below):

But it’s important to note home prices vary by market. What happens nationally might not reflect exactly what’s happening in your area. If your local market has more inventory available, prices could grow more slowly or even decline slightly. But in areas where inventory remains tight, prices will keep climbing – and that’s what’s happening throughout most of the country. That’s why it’s crucial to work with a local real estate expert who understands your market and can explain what’s going on where you live.

Bottom Line

If you’re wondering what it’ll take for prices to come down, it all goes back to supply and demand. With inventory still limited in most markets, prices are likely to remain steady or rise.

To see what’s happening with home prices where you live, connect with a local real estate expert. They can help you understand your market and make a plan that works for you.

Why Owning a Home Is Worth It in the Long Run

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Dec 5, 2024

Today’s mortgage rates and home prices may have you second-guessing whether it’s still a good idea to buy a home right now. While market factors are definitely important, there’s also a bigger picture to consider: the long-term benefits of homeownership.

Think of it this way. If you know people who bought a home 5, 10, or even 30 years ago, you’re probably going to have a hard time finding someone who regrets their decision. That’s because over time, home values usually grow – and that means a homeowner’s net worth does too. Here’s a look at how that can really add up over the years.

Home Price Growth over Time

The map below uses data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to show how much prices have grown over the last five years. Since home prices vary by area, the map is broken out regionally to really showcase larger market trends:

You can see that nationally, home prices increased by over 57% in just five years.

Some regions are slightly above or below that average, but overall, home prices saw a big uptick in a short time. And if you zoom out even more, the benefit of homeownership — and the drastic gains homeowners made over the years — become even more clear (see map below):

The second map shows that, over a roughly 30-year span, home prices appreciated by an average of more than 320% nationally.

So the typical homeowner who bought a house about 30 years ago saw their home triple in value during that time. And that’s a major reason so many homeowners who bought their homes years ago are still happy with their decision today.

Bottom Line

There’s no denying today’s market is complex. But if you’re ready and able to buy right now, get in touch with an agent to talk through how you can still make your move happen. That way you can take advantage of the long-term advantages that come with homeownership, like your ability to build wealth as your home value rises.

More Homes, Slower Price Growth – What It Means for You as a Buyer

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Nov 13, 2024

There are more homes on the market right now than there have been in years – and that could be a game changer for you if you’re ready to buy. Let’s look at two reasons why.

You Have More Options To Choose From

An article from Realtor.com helps explain just how much the number of homes for sale has gone up this year:

“There were 29.2% more homes actively for sale on a typical day in October compared with the same time in 2023, marking the twelfth consecutive month of annual inventory growth and the highest count since December 2019.”

And while the number of homes on the market still isn’t quite back to where it was in the years leading up to the pandemic, this is definitely an improvement (see graph below):

With more homes available for sale now, you have more options to choose from. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains:

“Though still lower than pre-pandemic, burgeoning home supply means buyers have more options . . .”

That means you have a better chance of finding a house that meets your needs. It also means the buying process doesn’t have to feel quite as rushed, because more options on the market means you’ll likely face less competition from other buyers.

Home Price Growth Is Slowing

When there aren’t many homes for sale, buyers have to compete more fiercely for the ones that are available. That’s what happened a few years ago, and it’s what drove prices up so quickly.

But now, the increasing number of homes on the market is causing home price growth to slow down (see graph below):

In certain markets, the number of available homes has not only bounced back to normal, but has even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. In those areas, home price growth has slowed or stalled completely. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:

“Generally speaking, housing markets where active inventory has returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels have seen home price growth soften or even decline outright from their 2022 peak.”

Slower or stalled price growth could give you a better chance of finding something within your budget. As Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), says:

“For the third consecutive month U.S. house prices showed little movement . . . relatively flat house prices may improve housing affordability.”

But remember, inventory levels and home prices are going to vary by market.

So, having a real estate agent who knows the local area can be a big advantage. They can help you understand the trends in your community, which can make a real difference in finding a home that fits your needs and budget.

Bottom Line

More housing options – and the slower home price growth they bring – can help you find and buy a home that works for your lifestyle and budget. So don’t hesitate to reach out to a local real estate agent if you want to talk about the growing number of choices you have right now.

Why You Need an Agent To Set the Right Asking Price

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Nov 8, 2024

Some Highlights

The #1 task sellers struggle with is setting the right asking price for their house.
Without an agent’s help, you may set a price that turns away buyers and takes a long time to sell.
To make sure your house is priced right, connect with a local agent. Because if the price isn’t compelling, it’s not selling.

Q&A: How Do Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market?

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Nov 1, 2024

Some Highlights

Even if you’re not looking to move right away, you may have questions about how the election will impact the housing market.
When we look at historical trends, combined with what’s happening right now, we can find your answers. Based on historical data, mortgage rates decrease in the months before and home prices and sales increase the year after the election.
The facts show Presidential elections only have a small and temporary impact on the housing market.

Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Oct 29, 2024

With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.

Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown

In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below):

Why? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up time and time again, and it’s particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market.

This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty.

Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election

The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below):

That’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales.

What To Expect in 2025

If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below):

And that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.

So, while it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market.

Bottom Line

It’s important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.