Home Prices | The HousingCoach

Selling a Luxury House? Here’s Why Now Is a Good Time

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Jul 27, 2026

If you own a luxury house, you’re in a stronger spot than most sellers right now. While much of the market has cooled, the high-end tier hasn’t. Sale prices and buyer demand are both up. So if you’re considering selling, now could be a great time to make your move.

Luxury Is Leading on Price

Let’s start with prices. But before we get into it – what actually counts as a luxury home? Generally, these are homes in the top 5% price range for the area, so it varies depending on where you live.

But what’s interesting is that according to the latest data from Redfin, sale prices for luxury houses have risen about three times faster than for non-luxury.

Right now, the typical home’s sale price is up about 1.5% year-over-year. But high-end homes? Their sale prices have gone up nearly 5% since last year (see graph below):

That’s a bigger deal than it sounds like.

Despite all the talk about slowing price growth lately, sale prices in this segment of the market may be rising faster than you’d expect based on the headlines. That’s going to be a good thing if you’re thinking about selling. And rising sale prices are only half the story.

Buyers Are Showing Up, Too

While so many headlines are talking about how buyers are pulling back, that’s not necessarily true when it comes to luxury homes. In fact, right now, it looks like the higher the price point, the more active the buyers.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist with the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“The luxury market has really performed better compared to the lower price point. . . . if we look at price points, any home priced under $250,000, virtually no change in unit sales from one year ago. Then you go into the upper price category, and home sales are up about 10% from one year ago. But the million dollar-plus homes, it is up by 18% from one year ago.“

Basically, more homes are selling on the upper end of the market. A big reason is that high-end buyers tend to feel less of the affordability pressure weighing on many households today, so they keep buying even when the wider market slows.

That demand also means that luxury houses don’t stay on the market as long as they used to.

Luxury Houses Are Selling Relatively Quickly

According to the most recent data from Redfin, for luxury homes the median number of days on market is under 50. That’s much faster than pre-pandemic norms going even as far back as 2014 (see graph below):

That means you probably won’t spend a ton of time sitting in limbo wondering when you’ll get an offer.

Bottom Line

Selling a high-end house is a big decision, and you deserve to feel confident going in. With sale prices climbing and buyers active at the top, this is a strong window to make your move.

When you’re ready to cash in, connect with a local real estate agent to talk strategy.

More Homes, Better Prices: A Buyer’s Summer

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Jul 20, 2026

If you’ve thought about buying a home in the past few years, you may have run into two frustrations: asking prices that kept climbing and too few homes to choose from.

In many places, both sticking points are letting up this summer, with lower asking prices and more homes for sale. Let’s look at the trends, and what they mean for your search.

Sellers Are Pricing To Attract Buyers

According to Realtor.com, the national median asking price was $430,000 in June, nearly $11,000 under what it was the year before (see graph below):

That’s the eighth month in a row that the typical asking price has dipped below where they were the previous year, according to the same Realtor.com report.

And while falling prices can sound worrying, this isn’t a sign of an impending crash. We’re talking about asking prices, not sold prices. This is a sign that today’s sellers are meeting the market where it is and pricing to draw buyers. And that’s actually something normal we’d expect from the market. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, puts it:

“Sellers are reading market conditions and are pricing accordingly from the start rather than listing high and cutting later, and buyers are taking note and making bids. This is a welcome sign that we are in a functioning market.”

Asking prices were never going to climb forever – now they’re just settling closer to what buyers can actually pay. That signals a healthier market, and sellers re-adjusting their expectations.

More Homes Are Available Now

If you’ve spent the past few years watching homes disappear before you could even schedule a tour, this is for you.

Supply is starting to catch up. According to Realtor.com, the number of homes listed for sale in June was the highest June number we’ve seen in three years (see graph below):

This means more options for you and less competition for each one.

Now, supply is not back to normal everywhere. As you can see, we’re still down from where we were back in 2017-2019. But in many places, it’s better than it’s been in a while. Here’s how that helps you.

You don’t have to rush an offer just to stay in the running, and you have better odds of finding and landing the right home, not just the one that’s available. Plus, you’ll have more room to negotiate, so you’re searching from a stronger position than buyers had even a year ago.

Why This Is Encouraging if You’re Buying Your First Home

For first-time buyers looking for lower-priced homes, these trends line up especially well. Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow, explains:

“The lowest price tiers are exhibiting some softness in terms of price, they also had the most listing-activity growth, the first time since 2022 that’s been the case.”

So, if you’re searching for your first place or your next house, there’s a little more to choose from and a little more give on price.

Bottom Line

If a tight budget or a thin selection has kept you from buying a home, now might be the time to restart your search.

Connect with a local real estate agent to see what’s available where you’re looking.

What To Expect from the Housing Market in the Second Half of 2026

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Jul 9, 2026

If the first half of this year has left you feeling stuck, you’re not the only one. Mortgage rates stayed higher than people wanted. Affordability remained tight. And uncertainty overseas added another layer of pressure nobody saw coming.

That’s why so many people are asking the same question: Will the second half of the year be any better for the housing market?

While nobody has a crystal ball, there are a few encouraging signs things could start moving in a better direction. Here’s what to watch.

Mortgage Rates Could Be Near a Turning Point

One of the biggest reasons mortgage rates haven’t come down yet is inflation. And higher energy prices and uncertainty overseas are at least part of the reason inflation is still elevated. The encouraging news?

Oil prices have already started coming back down.

That may not sound like it has much to do with buying a home. But historically, mortgage rates and oil prices tend to move in the same direction.

Take a look at the graph below. Generally, they rise and fall together. Both went up in February when the conflict began. While there’s been some volatility lately, experts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) say oil prices are forecast to come down. And since oil prices have been on an overall downward trend lately, mortgage rates could come down too:

It’s too soon to say exactly when that will happen (or by how much they’ll fall), but if energy prices go down, inflation cools off, and tensions overseas ease, mortgage rates could come down in the second half of the year.

And that’s good news for anyone thinking about moving. The first half of the year tested everyone’s patience. The second half may finally reward it.

Home Prices Could Pick Back Up

A lot of people want home prices to fall too. But that’s not what most forecasts show.

While price trends are going to vary by area, and some places are seeing mild declines, experts still expect home prices to net positive this year at the national level.

In fact, they’re projecting prices will rise by an average of 2.3% in 2026 (see graph below):

What does that mean for you? Right now, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)data shows prices are up about 1.7% nationally year-over-year. The average forecast for all of 2026? 2.3%.

Based on those projections, home price growth would have to pick up a bit during the second half of the year. Nothing dramatic, just enough to finish the year around that projected 2.3% gain.

Here’s why that’s possible.

The number of homes for sale has grown, but that growth may be starting to slow down. And if rates improve, more buyers could jump back into the market. More buyers competing could put modest upward pressure on prices, especially if inventory’s not growing as fast.

That’s why buyers shouldn’t assume waiting will guarantee a lower price later. And for sellers, that’s great news if you’ve been worried about your home’s value.

More Homes Are Expected To Sell

If you’ve been wondering why the housing market has felt quieter lately, you’re not imagining it. Home sales have been slower than many experts expected. But that doesn’t mean people have stopped wanting to move.

A lot of people still want or need to make a change. They’ve just been waiting for more certainty, better affordability, or a clearer read on where the market is headed. And early signs show that may be on the horizon.

If rates ease and confidence improves, more people may finally move. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“Overall, we expect pent-up demand to continue emerging gradually. But the pace of recovery will vary significantly across markets and will depend on the path of rates, labor market conditions and inventory growth.”

Based on the latest forecasts, to hit the number of sales expected this year, here’s what would have to happen. The second half of the year would need to outperform the first in sales (see graph below):

In fact, each month for the rest of 2026 would have to come close to matching the best month we’ve had so far this year (May). That’s a sign the experts are calling for more momentum headed into the second half.

More people will finally make their move happen – and you’ve got the chance to be one of them.

Bottom Line

The second half of the year probably won’t be perfect. But it could be better.

Mortgage rates may ease. Home sales could pick up. And prices are expected to continue rising at a healthier, more sustainable pace. If you’ve been waiting for signs of progress, this is it.

If you want to understand what these forecasts mean for your plans and what’s happening in your local market, connect with an agent.

The Housing Market Is Stronger Than You Think

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Jul 1, 2026

You’ve probably heard plenty of doom and gloom about the housing market lately. High rates. Stretched budgets. Headlines that make buying or selling sound like a terrible idea. But the data tells a very different story.

This isn’t 2020 or 2021. It was never going to be. Those were the “unicorn years” – historic low mortgage rates, bidding wars on everything, homes flying off the market in days. That kind of market was a once-in-a-generation anomaly, not a baseline. So, when people compare today to that, of course it looks rough.

But compared to almost any other housing market in modern history? This one is holding up remarkably well.

Homeowners Are Sitting on a Mountain of Equity

One of the biggest reasons this market hasn’t cracked is the financial strength of the American homeowner. According to Federal Reserve data, homeowner equity and mortgage debt were nearly identical in 2008. That means, if someone hit a rough patch, they had almost nothing to fall back on. That’s what made that crash so bad.

Today? Total homeowner equity across the country sits at $35 trillion – dwarfing total mortgage debt (see graph below):

That gap means most homeowners aren’t stretched thin or one bad month away from trouble. They own a meaningful chunk of their home and that gives them options. If they needed to sell, many could because they have a cushion. And that cushion grows over time.

Realtor.com found that homeowners who’ve been in their home just 5 years have built up around $180,000 in equity on average. Stick around 6-10 years, and that jumps to over $340,000.
Data from ATTOM and the Census shows two-thirds of homeowners either own their home outright or have more than 50% equity.

That’s not a fragile market. That’s a population of homeowners who are financially positioned to sell, to stay, or to make their next move from a place of strength rather than pressure.

Low Rates and Low Foreclosures

At the same time, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data shows more than half of all active mortgages still carry a rate below 4% (see graph below):

That’s a big reason inventory stays tight. Those homeowners aren’t in a rush to trade their rate for a higher one. They’re sitting comfortably in a strong financial position, not scrambling.

That comfort shows up in the foreclosure numbers, too. Despite a slight recent uptick, foreclosure volumes remain dramatically below historical norms, according to ATTOM. Homeowners aren’t losing their homes in droves. They have equity, they have breathing room, and most have options that keep them out of financial distress.

Prices Are Stabilizing, Not Crashing

Here’s another point on the resilience of the market. Redfin research shows home prices are still rising, but the pace has slowed, now closer to 2% year-over-year nationally (see graph below):

That slowdown is good news, as Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, explains:

“We’re in the middle of a long-term housing market correction, not a housing market crash. After the pandemic-era frenzy sent prices soaring and inventory to historic lows, the market needed a reset.”

Bottom Line

This market isn’t broken, and waiting for a crash that isn’t coming has a cost. Every month spent on the sidelines is a month someone else is building equity, locking in a price, or getting ahead of what most experts expect to be a housing surge once broader economic conditions settle.

Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, a local real estate agent can help you figure out what this market means for your specific situation and what your next move could look like.

The 1 Factor That Explains Everything Happening with Home Prices Right Now

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Jun 29, 2026

You’ve probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that’s true – nationally. But zoom in on individual markets across the country, and the picture looks completely different depending on where you are.

Some areas are still seeing solid price growth. Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what’s causing all of that variation?

It All Comes Down to Inventory

Here’s the simple version:

When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options.
More options, means less competition.
Less competition means sellers can’t push prices as high.

On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up.

That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country.

Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are still seeing prices rise. As Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub, puts it:

“Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest.

In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing.”

The Maps Say It All

Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019. In most places (the states in gray below), inventory still falls short of where we were back then. And that’s exactly why prices are climbing, albeit moderately, in the vast majority of states.

But you’re probably more interested in where prices are falling a bit, since that’s what is making headlines. So, let’s prove out how much inventory affects prices in those spots.

According to Realtor.com, 15 states and Washington, D.C. are now back above pre-pandemic inventory levels, and some by a wide margin (see the orange in the map below):

Now, let’s look at the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data to see what’s happened to home prices in those same states over the past year (again, you’ll want to focus on the orange in the next map).

See how those line up pretty closely with the areas seeing more homes for sale today?

The overlap isn’t a coincidence. It’s cause and effect.

The national average of 1.7% price growth is accurate, but it’s an average of two very different stories happening at the same time – the few areas experiencing mild declines and the overwhelming majority that are still seeing prices rise.

What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling

If you’re a buyer, the market you’re shopping in matters a lot right now. In places like Texas, Colorado, or Florida, you may have real negotiating power – more choices, less competition, and sellers who are more motivated to make a deal. In tighter markets like much of the Northeast, you’re still likely facing a lot of competition.

If you’re a seller, pricing strategy is everything. In markets where inventory has risen, overpricing is one of the fastest ways to linger on the market and eventually sell for less than you would have with the right price from day one. In markets where inventory is still low, you’re in a strong spot, but getting your price right still matters if you want to attract serious buyers quickly. Either way, that’s where a local real estate agent earns their keep.

Bottom Line

When it comes to prices, where you are matters more than ever right now, and a local real estate agent is the best person to help you make sense of it.

Reach out to a local real estate agent today and work together to build a plan that fits your market.

Think Home Prices Will Crash? Here’s What the Experts Actually Expect.

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Jun 17, 2026

One of the biggest reasons buyers are still sitting on the sidelines is because they think home prices are going to come down.

Some believe a crash is coming and they’ll get a better deal if they hold off.
Others worry they’ll buy now and watch their home’s value fall later.

And nobody wants to overpay or buy right before values drop. But here’s the question worth asking:

What if the crash you’re waiting for isn’t actually coming?

Because that’s what the latest data suggests.

Experts Are Not Calling for a Crash

If you’ve spent any time online lately, you’ve seen posts claiming home prices are about to come crashing down. And it’s true that some markets are seeing small price declines right now.

But that’s not the same thing as a nationwide crash.

While some places are going through a price adjustment, Realtor.com data shows home prices are still rising in 71% of housing markets across the country.

The trouble is, since negative news sells, you’re seeing more coverage about how a handful of markets are seeing declines, than how the majority are still seeing prices rise. And that’s unfortunate.

It’s exactly why a lot of buyers end up with the impression that prices are falling everywhere when they’re not. So how do you really know where prices are really headed from here?

That’s where the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae comes in.

Home Prices Will Rise for the Next 5 Years

Every quarter, more than 100 economists, housing experts, and market analysts are asked where they think home prices are headed based on the latest data available.

And despite all the uncertainty in today’s market, there’s one thing they largely agreed on:

They don’t think a crash is coming.

In fact, the average of all of their forecasts calls for home prices to rise every year for at least the next 5 years (see graph below):

The point is that the overwhelming expectation isn’t for prices to fall. It’s for prices to rise at a more normal pace. And just in case you’re looking at the forecasts and saying: “of course they’d say that” – know that this survey doesn’t just include optimists. It includes pessimists too.

Even the Pessimists Aren’t Predicting a Crash

Researchers broke the panel into groups based on how bullish or bearish they were about housing. The result? Even the most pessimistic group still expects home prices to climb over the next five years.

Optimists think we’ll see prices go up roughly 4% a year. Pessimists say it’ll be closer to 1%. The reality may be somewhere in the middle.

Think about that for a second. The debate among experts isn’t whether prices will crash. It’s how much they’ll rise.

That’s a very different conversation than the one happening across social media.

This Means Waiting Could Actually Cost You

So, if you’re putting off your move until prices come down, you may be disappointed. According to the experts, a widespread crash isn’t in the cards.

In fact, based on the HPES forecast, a buyer who purchased a $400,000 home this January would gain nearly $40,000 in equity over the next five years from appreciation alone, even in this more moderate market (see below):

Of course, this all depends on local market conditions. This forecast is a national average. But broadly speaking, if the experts are right, the bigger risk isn’t that prices will crash. It may be waiting for a crash that never comes.

Because depending on your market, if you wait, you could be missing out on $40k in equity or paying 40k more in 5 years for the same house.

Bottom Line

A lot of buyers are waiting because they think prices will fall, but that’s not what the experts are saying.

If you’re trying to decide whether waiting still makes sense, connect with a local agent. They’ll help you understand what’s happening in your local market and what it could mean for your plans.