A Recession Doesn’t Mean a Housing Crisis
There’s a lot of talk about a recession lately and how the odds of one are rising.
4 Things To Expect from the Spring Housing Market
Spring is in full swing, and the housing market is picking up along with it. And if you’ve been wondering whether now is the right time to buy or sell, here’s the inside scoop on why this spring may be a great time to make your move.
1. There Are More Homes for Sale
After a long stretch of tight inventory, the number of homes for sale is finally improving. According to recent national data from Realtor.com, active listings are up 27.5% compared to this time last year.
Look at the graph below and follow the green line for 2025. You can see, even though inventory levels still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic norms (shown in gray), that number is higher than it has been going into the spring market over the past few years (see graph below):
Buyers: This means you have more choices, and you can be more selective.
Sellers: With more homes available than in recent years, you’re more likely to find what you’re looking for when you move. And knowing that inventory is still below more normal levels means there will be demand for your home when you sell it, too.
2. Home Price Growth Is Moderating
As inventory grows, the pace of home price growth is slowing down – and that will continue into the spring market. This is because prices are driven by supply and demand. When there are more homes for sale, buyers have more options, so there’s less competition for each house. Rising supply and less buyer competition causes price growth to slow, but it should still remain positive in most markets. As Freddie Mac says:
“In 2025, we expect the pace of house price appreciation to moderate from the levels seen in 2024, while still maintaining a positive trajectory.”
And while prices aren’t dropping at the national level, every market is different. Some areas are seeing stronger price growth, while others are cooling off or even seeing some price declines.
Buyers: The slower pace of growth means prices aren’t rising as quickly as before – and that’s a relief. Any home you buy now is likely to appreciate in value over time, helping you build equity.
Sellers: While prices are still rising, you might need to adjust your expectations. Overpricing your house in a more balanced market could mean it takes longer to sell. Pricing your house competitively is going to be key to attracting offers.
3. Mortgage Rates Are Stabilizing
One of the biggest hurdles for buyers over the past couple of years has been high, volatile mortgage rates. But there’s some good news – overall, they’ve stabilized in recent weeks – and have even declined a bit since the beginning of this year. And while that decrease hasn’t been a big drop, stabilizing mortgage rates has helped make buying a home a bit more predictable. According to Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic:
“With the spring homebuying season upon us, the recent improvements in mortgage rates may help invite homebuyers back into the market.”
Buyers: When mortgage rates are more stable, it’s easier to plan ahead because you have a better idea of what your future payment might be. But remember, rates will continue to be volatile. So, lean on your agent and your lender to make sure you know what the latest mortgage rate means for you.
Sellers: Slightly lower rates that are starting to stabilize are encouraging more buyers to move forward with their plans. That’s good for demand when you’re planning to sell your house.
4. More Buyers Are Returning
With more inventory, slowing price growth, and stabilizing mortgage rates, buyers are gaining confidence and coming back into the market. Demand is picking up, and data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows an increase in mortgage applications compared to the start of the year (see graph below):
Buyers: Acting sooner rather than later could be a smart move before your competition heats up even more.
Sellers: This is great news for you – more buyers mean a better chance of selling your house quickly.
Bottom Line
Do you have questions about what the spring market means for you? Connect with a local real estate agent and talk about how to craft your plan this season.
With more homes for sale, slowing price growth, and stabilizing mortgage rates, how will this impact your decision to buy or sell this spring?
Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Point So Far This Year
If you’ve been holding off on buying a home because of high mortgage rates, you might want to take another look at the market. That’s because mortgage rates have been trending down lately – and that gives you a chance to jump back in.
Mortgage rates have been declining for seven straight weeks now, according to data from Freddie Mac. And the average weekly rate is now at the lowest level so far this year (see graph below):
While that may not sound like a significant shift, it is noteworthy. Because the meaningful drop from over 7% to the mid-6’s can change your mindset when it comes to buying a home. Especially when the forecasts said we wouldn’t hit this number until roughly Q3 of this year (see graph below):
Why Are Rates Coming Down?
According to Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), recent economic uncertainty is playing a role in pushing rates lower:
“Mortgage rates declined last week on souring consumer sentiment regarding the economy and increasing uncertainty over the impact of new tariffs levied on imported goods into the U.S. Those factors resulted in the largest weekly decline in the 30-year fixed rate since November 2024.”
And the timing of this recent decline is great because it gives you a little bit of relief going into the spring market. Just remember, mortgage rates can be a quickly moving target, so you should expect some volatility going forward. But the window you have as they’re coming down right now might be the sweet spot for your purchasing power now.
What Lower Rates Mean for Your Buying Power
Even small changes in rates can make a difference to your monthly payment. Here’s how the math shakes out. The chart below shows what a monthly payment (principal and interest) would look like on a $400K home loan if you purchased a house when rates were 7.04% back in mid-January (this year’s mortgage rate high), versus what it could look like if you buy a home now (see below):
In just a matter of weeks, the anticipated payment on a $400K loan has come down by over $100 per month. That’s a significant savings. When you’re making a decision as big as buying a home, every bit counts.
Just remember, shifts in the economy drove rates down faster than expected. But that can change, making rates volatile in the days and months ahead. So, if you’re waiting for rates to fall further before you buy, think hard about the current window of opportunity if you’re ready to act.
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates have dipped, giving buyers a bit more immediate breathing room. If you’ve been waiting for rates to ease before jumping in, this could be your window.
Would a lower monthly payment make buying a home feel more doable for you?
Connect with an agent to break down the numbers and find out.
How To Buy a Home Without Waiting for Lower Rates
Many people are hoping mortgage rates will come down before they buy a home. But will that actually happen? According to the latest forecasts, experts say rates will decline, but not by as much as a lot of people want.
The good news? Even if they don’t drop substantially, there are still ways to make buying a home more affordable.
How Much Will Rates Drop?
A few months ago, experts were forecasting mortgage rates could dip below 6% by the end of the year. But recent projections suggest that may not happen after all.
While mortgage rates are still expected to decline some later this year, projections from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and Wells Fargo now show them stabilizing closer to the 6.5% to 7% range (see below):
That means if you’re holding off on buying a home in hopes of much lower mortgage rates, you may be waiting a while. And if you need to move because something in your life has changed, like a new job, a new baby, or a marriage – waiting that long may not be an option.
Creative Financing Options in Today’s Market
Since rates aren’t expected to decline as much as originally expected, it may be worth considering alternative financing options that could help you get into a home sooner rather than later. Here are three strategies to discuss with your lender to see if any of these make sense for you:
1. Mortgage Buydowns
A mortgage buydown allows you to pay an upfront fee to lower your mortgage rate for a set period of time. This can be especially helpful if you want or need a lower monthly payment early on. In fact, 27% of agents say first-time homebuyers are increasingly requesting buydowns from sellers in order to buy a home right now.
2. Adjustable-Rate Mortgages
Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically start with a lower mortgage rate than a traditional 30-year fixed mortgage. This makes them an attractive option, especially if you expect rates to drop in the coming years or plan to refinance later.
And if you remember the housing crash, know that today’s ARMs aren’t like the risky ones back then. Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, helps drive this point home by saying:
“. . . ARM products today are different from many of the products issued in the mid-2000s. Before 2008, lenders often approved ARMs based on borrowers ability to pay the initial lower interest rates. And sometimes they didn’t even check that (remember Ninja loans). Today, adjustable-rate borrowers qualify based on their ability to cover a higher monthly payment, not just the initial lower payment.”
In simple terms, banks used to give loans without checking to see if buyers could afford them. Now, lenders verify income, assets, and jobs, reducing the risks associated with ARMs compared to the past.
3. Assumable Mortgages
An assumable mortgage allows you to take over the seller’s existing loan — including its lower mortgage rate. And with more than 11 million homes qualifying for this option according to U.S. News, it’s worth exploring if you want or need a better rate.
Bottom Line
Waiting for a big decline in mortgage rates may not be the best strategy. Instead, options like buydowns, ARMs, or assumable mortgages could make homeownership more affordable right now. Connect with a local lender to explore what works for you.
How does this impact your homebuying plans this year?
Smaller Homes, Bigger Opportunities: The Homebuilder Trend Buyers Love
It’s no secret that affordability is tough with where mortgage rates and home prices are right now. And that may have you worried about how you’ll be able to buy a home. But, if you don’t need a ton of space, you may find you have more cost-effective options in an unexpected place: new home communities.
Builders Are Building Smaller Homes
Since smaller homes typically come with smaller price tags, buyers have turned their attention to homes with less square footage — and builders have shifted their focus to capitalize on that demand. As U.S. News notes:
“The combination of higher home prices and mortgage rates has strained a lot of people’s budgets. And that’s something builders recognize. To this end, they may be leaning toward smaller spaces . . .That, in turn, can lead to savings for buyers.”
Data from the Census shows the overall builder trend toward smaller, single-family homes has been over the last couple of years (see graph below):
As the graph shows, the average size of a brand-new home has dropped from 2,309 square feet in Q3 2022 to 2,171 square feet in Q3 2024. That’s a difference of 138 square feet.
At the end of the day, builders want to build what they know will sell. And the number one thing homebuyers are looking for right now is less expensive options to help offset today’s affordability challenges. As Multi-Housing News notes:
“The growing trend toward smaller homes is evident. These homes are less expensive to build and more attainable for many middle-income families, meeting both housing needs and modern lifestyle preferences.”
The Benefits of These Brand-New Homes
So, if you’re having trouble finding a home in your budget, it might be worth exploring newly built homes with a smaller footprint.
Not to mention, since newly built homes come with brand new everything, they have fewer maintenance needs and some of the latest features available, like energy-efficient appliances and HVAC. That’ll help you save on repair costs and your monthly utility bills. Sounds like an all-around win.
Bottom Line
Today’s builders are focusing their efforts on smaller homes at lower price points. That could give you more opportunity to find something that fits your budget. If you’re planning to buy soon, connect with a local real estate agent to explore what’s on the market in your area and get your homeownership goals over the finish line.
When Is the Perfect Time To Move?
It’s easy to get caught up in the idea of waiting for the perfect moment to make your move – especially in today’s market. Maybe you’re holding out and hoping mortgage rates will drop, or that home prices will fall. But here’s what you need to realize: trying to time the market rarely works. And here’s why.
There is no perfect market.
No matter when you buy, there’s always some benefit and some sort of trade-off – and that’s not a bad thing. That’s just the reality of it. If you’re not sure you buy into that, think back to the last 5 years in housing.
Just a few years ago, mortgage rates hit a historic low. To take advantage of that, a ton of buyers rushed to buy a home and lock in those lower rates. The side effect? With such a big increase in how many buyers were purchasing, the homes on the market were snapped up fast. And since that resulted in so few homes left for sale, bidding wars became the norm and home prices went through the roof. Those buyers got a great rate, but they had other things to contend with.
Now, with higher rates and higher prices, it’s more expensive to buy. You can’t argue that. But at the same time, the number of homes for sale is at the highest point in several years. That means you have more options to choose from and you’ll be less likely to find yourself in a pull-out-all-the-stops bidding war. Again, there are benefits and trade-offs in any market.
So, if you have a reason to move and can afford to do so, you’ve got to take advantage of the trends that work in your favor and lean on a pro to help you navigate the rest. As Bankrate says:
“The complexities of the current conditions mean that, now more than ever, it’s smart to lean on the guidance of an experienced local real estate agent. If you want to enter the housing market in 2025, whether as a buyer or a seller, let a pro lead the way for you.”
While achieving your goals may feel like an uphill battle in today’s complex market, it is doable. But you’ll need the help of a trusted real estate agent and a lender.
Your agent will help you explore creative solutions – like looking into different housing types (like smaller condos), considering homes that need a little elbow grease, or casting a wider net for your search area. And your lender will walk you through different loan options and down payment assistance programs, so you know what you need to do to make the numbers work for you. As Yahoo Finance says:
“Buying a house at a time when both mortgage rates and home prices are favorable is a challenge. You probably shouldn’t try to time the housing market . . . Buy when it makes sense for you personally.”
Bottom Line
There’s no perfect time to move – every market has its pros and cons. The key is knowing how to make the most of the factors working in your favor. By partnering with a trusted real estate agent and lender, you’ll have the guidance and tools to make a move possible.
