Economy | The HousingCoach

Stocks May Be Volatile, but Home Values Aren’t

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | May 6, 2025

With all the uncertainty in the economy, the stock market has been bouncing around more than usual. And if you’ve been watching your 401(k) or investments lately, chances are you’ve felt that pit in your stomach. One day it’s up. The next day, it’s not. And that may make you feel a little worried about your finances.

But here’s the thing you need to remember if you’re a homeowner. According to Investopedia:

“Traditionally, stocks have been far more volatile than real estate. That’s not to say that real estate prices aren’t ever volatile—the years around the 2007 to 2008 financial crisis are just one memorable example—but stocks are more prone to large value swings.”

While your stocks or 401(k) might see a lot of highs and lows, home values are much less volatile.

A Drop in the Stock Market Doesn’t Mean a Crash in Home Prices

Take a look at the graph below. It shows what happened to home prices (the blue bars) during past stock market swings (the orange bars):

Even when the stock market falls more substantially, home prices don’t always come down with it.

Big home price drops like 2008 are the exception, not the rule. But everyone remembers that one. That stock market crash was caused by loose lending practices, subprime mortgages, and an oversupply of homes – a scenario that doesn’t exist today. That’s what made it so different.

In many cases before and after that time, home values actually went up while the stock market went down, showing that real estate is generally much more stable.

This graph shows how stock prices go up and down (the orange line), sometimes by more than 30% in a year. In contrast, home prices (the blue line) change more slowly (see graph below):

Basically, stock values jump around a lot more than home prices do. You can be way up one day and way down the next. Real estate, on the other hand, isn’t usually something that experiences such dramatic swings.

That’s why real estate can feel more stable and less risky than the stock market.

So, if you’re worried after the recent ups and downs in your stock portfolio, rest assured, your home isn’t likely to experience the same volatility.

And that’s why homeownership is generally viewed as a preferred long-term investment. Even if things feel uncertain right now, homeowners win in the long run.

Bottom Line

A lot of people are feeling nervous about their finances right now. But there’s one reason for you to feel more secure – your investment in something that’s stood the test of time: real estate.

What an Economic Slowdown Could Mean for the Housing Market

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | May 1, 2025

Talk about the economy is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. That’s leaving a lot of people wondering what it means for the value of their home – and their buying power.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in the housing market during each recession, going all the way back to the 1980s. The facts may surprise you.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because inventory is still so low overall. Even in markets where the number of homes for sale has started to rise this year, inventory is still far below the oversupply of homes that led up to the housing crash.

In fact, according to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below)

So, don’t assume a recession will lead to a significant drop in home values. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising, just at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

So, a recession means rates could decline. And while that would help with your buying power, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

Bottom Line

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. However, that doesn’t mean you have to worry about what it means for the housing market – or the value of your home. Historical data tells us what usually happens.

If you’re wondering how the current economy is impacting your local market, connect with an agent.

Why Today’s Foreclosure Numbers Aren’t a Warning Sign

by The HousingCoach℠ - Matt McGrath | Apr 29, 2025

When it feels like the cost of just about everything is rising, it’s only natural to wonder what that means for the housing market. Some people are even questioning whether more homeowners will struggle to make their mortgage payments, ultimately leading to a wave of foreclosures. And recent data showing foreclosure filings have increased is only feeding into this fear. But don’t let that scare you.

If you put the latest data into context, it’s clear there’s no reason to think this is a repeat of the last housing crash.

This Isn’t Like 2008

While it’s true that foreclosure filings ticked up in the latest quarterly report from ATTOM, they’re still lower than the norm – and way below levels seen during the crash. And it’s a lot easier to see if you graph that out.

If you compare Q1 2025 (on the right side of the graph) to what happened in the years surrounding the 2008 crash (shown in red), it’s clear the market is in a completely different place (see graph below):

Back then, risky lending practices left homeowners with mortgages they couldn’t afford. That led to a wave of foreclosures, which flooded the market with distressed properties, a surplus of inventory, and caused home prices to drop dramatically.

Today, lending standards are much stronger, and most homeowners are in a much better financial position. That’s why filings are so much lower this time.

And just in case you’re looking at 2020 and 2021 and thinking we’ve ramped up since then, here’s what you need to know. During those years, there was a moratorium designed to help millions of homeowners avoid foreclosure in challenging times. That’s why the numbers for just a few years ago were so incredibly low.

So don’t compare today to that low point. If you look at more normal years like 2017-2019, overall foreclosure filings are actually down from what’s typical – and way down from the volume during the crash.

Of course, no one wants to go through the process of foreclosure. And the recent increase is emotional because it’s real lives that are impacted – let’s not discount that. It’s just that, as a whole, this isn’t a signal of trouble in the market.

Why We Haven’t Seen a Big Surge in Foreclosures

And here’s something else to reassure you: homeowner equity. Over the past few years, home prices have risen significantly. That means today’s homeowners have built up a solid financial cushion. As Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM, explains:

“While levels remain below historical averages, the quarterly growth suggests that some homeowners may be starting to feel the pressure of ongoing economic challenges. However, strong home equity positions in many markets continue to help buffer against a more significant spike . . .”

Basically, if someone falls on hard times and can’t make their mortgage payments, they may be able to sell their home instead of going into foreclosure. That’s a huge contrast to 2008, when many people owed more than their homes were worth and had no choice but to walk away.

Don’t discount the strong equity footing most homeowners have today. As Rick Sharga Founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, explains in a recent Forbes article:

“ . . . a significant factor contributing to today’s comparatively low levels of foreclosure activity is that homeowners—including those in foreclosure—possess an unprecedented amount of home equity.”

Bottom Line

Even with the recent increase, foreclosure numbers are not at the levels seen during the 2008 crash. Plus, most homeowners today are in a much stronger equity position, even with rising costs.

If you are a homeowner who’s facing hardship, talk to your mortgage provider to explore your options.