The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective

The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective

The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective Simplifying The Market

Headlines are saying home prices are starting to dip in some markets. And if you’re beginning to second guess your plans based on what you’re hearing in the media, here’s what you need to know.

It’s true that a few metros are seeing slight price drops. But don’t let that overshadow this simple truth. Home values almost always go up over time (see graph below):

a graph of a graph of salesWhile everyone remembers what happened around the housing crash of 2008, that was the exception – not the rule. It hadn’t happened before, and hasn’t since. There were many market dynamics that were drastically different back then, too. From relaxed lending standards to a lack of homeowner equity, and even a large oversupply of homes, it was very different from where the national housing market is today. So, every headline about prices slowing down, normalizing, or even dipping doesn’t need to trigger fear that another big crash is coming.

Here’s something that explains why short-term dips usually aren’t a long-term deal-breaker.

What’s the Five-Year Rule?

In real estate, you might hear talk about the five-year rule. The idea is that if you plan to own your home for at least five years, short-term dips in prices usually don’t hurt you much. That’s because home values almost always go up in the long run. Even if prices drop a bit for a year or two, they tend to bounce back (and then some) over time.

Take it from Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub:

“. . . there’s the ‘five-year rule of thumb’ in real estate—which suggests that most buyers can buffer themselves from mild short-term declines if they plan to own a property for at least that amount of time.”

What’s Happening in Today’s Market?

Here’s something else to put your mind at ease. Right now, most housing markets are still seeing home prices rise – just not as fast as they were a few years ago.

But in the major metros where prices are starting to cool off a little (the red bars in the graph below), the average drop is only about -2.9% since April 2024. That’s not a major decline like we saw back in 2008.

And when you look at the graph below, it’s clear that prices in most of those markets are up significantly compared to where they were five years ago (the blue bars). So, those homeowners are still ahead if they’ve been in their house for a few years or more (see graph below):

The Big Picture

Over the past 5 years, home prices have risen a staggering 55%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). So, a small short-term dip isn’t a significant loss. Even if your city is one where they’re down 2% or so, you’re still up far more than that.

And if you break those 5-year gains down even further, using data from the FHFA, you’ll see home values are up in every single state over the last five years (see map below):

a map of the united statesThat’s why it’s important not to stress too much about what’s happening this month, or even this year. If you’re in it for the long haul (and most homeowners are) your home is likely to grow in value over time.

Bottom Line

Yes, prices can shift in the short term. But history shows that home values almost always go up over five years. So, whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, remember the five-year rule, and take comfort in the long view.

When you think about where you want to be in five years, how does owning a home fit into that picture?

Connect with an agent to discuss how to get there.

Buying Your First Home? FHA Loans Can Help

Buying Your First Home? FHA Loans Can Help

Buying Your First Home? FHA Loans Can Help Simplifying The Market

If you’re a first-time homebuyer, you might feel like the odds are stacked against you in today’s market. But there are resources and programs out there that can help – if you know where to look. And one thing that can make homeownership easier to achieve? An FHA home loan.

They’re designed to help you overcome some of the biggest financial hurdles in the homebuying process – and that’s why so many first-timers are using them to make their purchase.

Whether you’re dreaming of ditching rent, planting roots, or just wanting a place that’s truly yours, an FHA home loan could be the path that gets you there sooner than you think.

Buying Your First Home Probably Doesn’t Feel Easy Right Now

While the motivation to buy a home is still there for many people, affordability is a real challenge today. According to a survey from 1000WATT, potential first-time buyers say their top two concerns are saving enough for their down payment and making the monthly mortgage payments work at today’s home prices and mortgage rates (see graph below):

That’s Where FHA Loans Come In

FHA loans help many first-time buyers overcome these challenges.

In fact, according to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the average first-time buyer using an FHA loan puts down just $16,000. That’s a big difference from the $77,000 they’re putting down with the typical conventional mortgage (see graph below):

Essentially, buyers who use an FHA loan may not have to come up with as much cash up front. But the perks don’t stop there. You may also be able to pay less monthly, too.

That’s because, a lot of the time, the mortgage rate on FHA loans can be lower. Bankrate says:

“FHA loan rates are competitive with, and often slightly lower than, rates for conventional loans.”

So, if you’re thinking about buying your first place, an FHA loan may be worth exploring.

Because of the potential for lower down payment requirements and maybe even a lower mortgage rate, it could help with the two most common hurdles first-time buyers face today – saving enough money upfront and affording the monthly payment.

A trusted lender can walk you through the details, compare your options, and help you figure out what loan type makes the most sense for your situation.

Bottom Line

With the right loan and the right guidance, homeownership may be more achievable than you think.

Do you want to talk more about your options? A trusted lender is there to help.

Understanding Today’s Mortgage Rates: Is 3% Coming Back?

Understanding Today’s Mortgage Rates: Is 3% Coming Back?

Understanding Today’s Mortgage Rates: Is 3% Coming Back? Simplifying The Market

A lot of buyers are pressing pause on their plans these days, holding out hope that mortgage rates will come down – maybe even back to the historic-low 3% from a few years ago. But here’s the thing: those rates were never meant to last. They were a short-term response to a very specific moment in time. And as the market finds its footing again, it’s time to reset expectations.

Back in 2020 and 2021, 3% mortgage rates gave buyers a serious boost: more affordability, more buying power, and more opportunity. But those rates were a result of emergency economic policies during the height of a global pandemic. Now that the economy is in a different place, we’re seeing mortgage rates in the high 6% to low 7% range.

And while experts currently project a slight easing in the months ahead, most industry leaders agree: rates are not going back to 3%.

Instead, many forecasts suggest mortgage rates will settle in the mid-6% range by the end of the year, pending any major economic shifts. As Kara Ng, Senior Economist at Zillow, says:

“While Zillow expects mortgage rates to end the year near mid-6%, barring any unforeseen shocks, that path might be bumpy.”

What Buyers Should Know

Basically, waiting for 3% rates might mean waiting longer than you’d expect – and missing out along the way. Instead of putting off homebuying indefinitely, make a plan to get there and focus on what you can control: your budget, your credit, and working with a trusted professional who can explain exactly what’s happening in the current market – and how to navigate it.

Your local real estate agent and a trusted lender make all the difference in this process. The experts have insights into down payment assistance programs, alternative financing options, negotiation strategies, and overall – the experience you need on your side to understand creative ways that will make your plans work.

And here’s the biggest thing to keep in mind. Since rates are projected to ease slightly later this year, if that happens, it could bring some more buyers back into the market. Acting now gives you a head start, especially with more homes on the market than we’ve seen in years.

Think about it: if mortgage rates do come down, what do you think everyone else is going to do? That’s right – they’ll jump back in too.

Getting ahead of that rush could put you in a stronger position to find the right home with less competition. Realtor.com sums it up well:

“Staying out of the market in hopes of a rate drop that never comes can lead to missed opportunities . . . Rising home prices, rent increases, and inflation might outpace any future savings on interest. And if rates do fall sharply again, buyers could face an entirely different challenge: surging competition.”

Bottom Line

Those 3% rates everyone remembers from a few years ago were the exception, not the rule.

Now that they’re settling into new territory, it’s a good time to adjust your expectations and learn more about where things are heading as this market shifts.

A local real estate agent and a trusted lender will be your best resources, always keeping you up-to-date and informed, so you can make sense of your options and build a game plan that works for you.

Newly Built Homes May Be Less Expensive Than You Think

Newly Built Homes May Be Less Expensive Than You Think

Newly Built Homes May Be Less Expensive Than You Think Simplifying The Market

Do you think a brand-new home means a bigger price tag? Think again.

Right now, something unique is happening in the housing market. According to the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median price of newly built homes is actually lower than the median price for existing homes (ones that have already been lived in):

a graph of sales and pricesYou read that right. That brand new, never-been-lived-in house may cost less than the one built 20 years ago in a neighborhood just down the street. So, if you wrote off a new build because you assumed they’d be financially out of reach, here’s what you should know. You could be missing out on some of the best options in today’s housing market.

Why Are Newly Built Homes Less Expensive Right Now?

1. Builders Are Building Smaller Homes

Builders know that buyers are struggling with affordability today. So, instead of building big houses that may not sell, they’re building smaller ones that will. According to the Census, the average size of a newly built single-family home has dropped considerably over the past few years (see graph below):

a graph of a growing graphAnd as size goes down, the price often does too. Smaller homes use fewer materials, which makes them less expensive to build. That helps builders keep prices lower so more people can afford them.

2. Builders Are Offering Price Cuts and Incentives

In May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 34% of builders lowered their prices, with an average price drop of 5%. That’s because they want to be sure they’re selling the inventory they have before they build more.

On top of that, 61% of builders also offered sales incentives – like helping with closing costs or buying down your mortgage rate. These are all ways builders are making their homes more affordable, so these homes sell in today’s market.

Your Next Step? Ask Your Agent What’s Available Near You

If you’re trying to buy a home right now, be sure to talk to your agent to find out what builders are doing in and around your area. They can find new home communities, as well as builders who are offering incentives or discounts, and hidden gems you might not uncover on your own.

Plus, buying a newly built home often means there are different steps in the process than if you purchase a home that’s been lived in before. That’s why it’s so important to have your own agent who can explain the fine print. You want a pro in your corner to advocate for you, negotiate on your behalf, and make sure your best interests come first.

Bottom Line

You could get a home that’s brand new, with modern features, at a price that’s even lower than some older homes. Talk with a local real estate agent about what you’re looking for and see if a newly built home is the right fit for you.

If buying a home is on your to-do list, what would stop you from exploring newly built options?

Is It Better To Rent or Buy a Home?

Is It Better To Rent or Buy a Home?

Is It Better To Rent or Buy a Home? Simplifying The Market

You’ve probably asked yourself lately: Is it even worth trying to buy a home right now?

With high home prices and stubborn mortgage rates, renting can seem like the safer choice right now. Or maybe your only choice. That’s a very real feeling. And perhaps buying today isn’t your best move; it’s not for everyone right away. You should only buy a home when you’re ready and able to do it, and if the timing is right for you.

But here’s the thing you need to know about renting.

While it may feel like a safer bet today – and in some areas might even be less expensive month-to-month than owning – it can really cost you more over time.

In fact, a recent Bank of America survey found that 70% of aspiring homeowners worry about what long-term renting means for their future. And they’re not wrong.

Owning a home may seem way out of reach, but if you make a plan now and steadily work toward it, homeownership comes with serious long-term financial benefits.

Homeownership Builds Wealth Over Time

Buying a home isn’t just about having a place to live – it’s a step toward building your future wealth.

Why? Home prices typically rise over time, which means the longer you wait, the more expensive it is to buy. And even in some markets where home prices are softening today, the overall long-term trend speaks for itself (see graph below):

a graph of a price of houses sold in the united statesAnd as home values rise, so does your equity when you’re a homeowner. That’s the difference between what your home is worth and what you owe. So, with every mortgage payment, that equity grows. Over time, that becomes part of your net worth.

Today, the average homeowner’s net worth is nearly 40X greater than that of a renter. That’s a shocking difference, and the dollars in the visual below don’t lie (see graph below):

a green rectangle with white textAnd it’s one of the big reasons why Forbes says:

“While renting might seem like [the] less stressful option . . . owning a home is still a cornerstone of the American dream and a proven strategy for building long-term wealth.”

The Biggest Downside of Renting

So, short-term, why does renting feel like a simpler choice? Lower monthly payments, less responsibility, no strings attached. But long-term? It can sting.

For decades, while home prices have been rising, rent has gone up too. And while rent has held rather steady more recently, history shows the overall trend is up and to the right. That makes saving for a home more complicated than ever (see graph below):

a graph of a number of peopleThat kind of financial uncertainty has a real impact. In the same Bank of America survey, 72% of potential buyers said they worry rising rent could affect their current and long-term finances.

Because rent doesn’t build wealth. It doesn’t come back to you later. It pays your landlord’s mortgage – not yours.

So, whether you rent or own, you’re paying a mortgage. The question is: whose mortgage do you want to pay?

Renting vs. Buying: What Really Matters

Think of it this way. Renting means your money is gone once you pay it. Owning means your payment builds equity – like a savings account you can live in. Sure, buying comes with responsibility. But it also comes with the kind of reward that grows over time. And that’s why you need a solid plan to get there.

As Joel Berner, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“Households working on their budget will find it much easier to continue to rent than to go through the expenses of homeownership. However, they need to consider the equity and generational wealth they can build up by owning a home that they can’t by renting it. In the long run, buying a home may be a better investment even if the short-run costs seem prohibitive.”

Bottom Line

Renting may feel more do-able today. But over time, it could cost you more – without helping you build anything for your future.

If homeownership feels out of reach today, you’re not alone. And the first step toward getting out of the rental trap is to set a plan. Connect with an agent to set your specific goals and explore your options – so you’re ready when the time is right.

Many Veterans Don’t Know about This VA Home Loan Benefit

Many Veterans Don’t Know about This VA Home Loan Benefit

Many Veterans Don’t Know about This VA Home Loan Benefit Simplifying The Market

For 80 years, Veterans Affairs (VA) home loans have helped countless Veterans buy a home. But even though a lot of Veterans have access to this powerful program, the majority don’t know about one of its core benefits.

According to a report from Veterans United only 3 in 10 Veterans are aware they may be able to buy a home with no down payment with a VA loan (see visual below):

a group of men in circlesThat means 7 out of every 10 Veterans could be missing out on a key homebuying advantage.

That’s why it’s so important for Veterans, and anyone who cares about a Veteran, to be aware of this program. As Veterans United explains, VA home loans:

“. . . come with a list of big-time benefits, including $0 down payment, no mortgage insurance, flexible and forgiving credit guidelines and the industry’s lowest average fixed interest rates.”

The Benefits of VA Home Loans

These loans are designed to make buying a home more achievable for those who have served. And, by extension, they also give their families the opportunity to plant roots and build equity in a home of their own. Here are some of the biggest advantages for this type of loan according to the Department of Veterans Affairs:

  • Options for No Down Payment: One of the biggest perks is that many Veterans can buy a home with no down payment at all.
  • Limited Closing Costs: With VA loans, there are limits on the types of closing costs Veterans have to pay. This helps keep more money in your pocket when you’re finalizing your purchase.
  • No Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI): Unlike many other loan types, VA loans don’t require PMI, even with lower down payments. This means lower monthly payments, which can add up to big savings over time.

If you want to learn more, your best resource for all the options and advantages of VA loans is your team of expert real estate professionals, including a local agent and a trusted lender.

Bottom Line

VA home loans offer life-changing assistance, and a trusted lender and agent can help make sure you understand the details and are ready to move forward with a solid plan.

Do you know if you’re eligible for a VA home loan? Talk to a trusted lender who can help you see if you’d qualify.

 

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