It’s impossible to research the subject of buying a home without coming across a headline declaring that the fall in home affordability is a crisis. However, when we add context to the most recent affordability statistics, we soon realize that, though homes are less affordable than they have been over the last few years, they are more affordable than they historically have been.
Black Knight, a premier provider of data and analytics for the mortgage industry, just released their latest Monthly Mortgage Monitor which includes a new analysis of the affordability situation. Here’s what the report reveals:
“The monthly payment required to purchase the average priced home with a 20% down 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased by nearly 20% (+$210) over the first nine months of 2021, . . . It now requires 21.6% of the median household income to make the monthly mortgage payment on the average home purchase, the least affordable housing has been since 30-year rates rose to nearly 5% back in late 2018.”
Basically, the report shows that homes are less affordable today than at any other time in the last three years. However, in a previous report earlier this year, Black Knight calculated that the percentage of the median household income to make the monthly mortgage payment on the average home purchase over the last 25 years was 23.6% (see graph below):Today’s payment-to-income ratio is more affordable than the average over the last 25 years. Given that context, we can see that American households still have the same ability to be homeowners as their parents did 20 years ago.
This confirms the recent analysis of ATTOM Data resources where Todd Teta, Chief Product and Technology Officer, explains:
“The typical median-priced home around the U.S. remains affordable to workers earning an average wage, despite prices that keep going through the roof. Super-low interests and rising pay continue to be the main reasons why.”
Bottom Line
It’s true that it’s less affordable to buy a home today than it has been the last few years. However, it’s more affordable to buy today than the average over the last 25 years. In other words, homes are less affordable, but they’re not unaffordable. That’s an important distinction.
While today’s supply of homes for sale is still low, the number of newly built homes is increasing. If you’re ready to sell but have held off because you weren’t sure you’d be able to find a home to move into, newly built homes and those under construction can provide the options you’ve been waiting for.
The latest Census data shows the inventory of new homes is increasing this year (see graph below):With more new homes coming to the market, this means you’ll have more options to choose from if you’re ready to buy. Of course, if you do consider a newly built home, you’ll want to keep timing in mind. The supply shown in the graph above includes homes at various stages of the construction process – some are near completion while others may be months away.
“28% of new home inventory consists of homes that have not started construction, compared to 21% a year ago.”
Buying a home near completion is great if you’re ready to move. Alternatively, a home that has yet to break ground might benefit you if you’re ready to sell and you aren’t on a strict timeline. You’ll have an even greater opportunity to design your future home to suit your needs. No matter what, your trusted real estate advisor can help you find a home that works for you.
Bottom Line
If you want to take advantage of today’s sellers’ market, but you’re not sure if you’ll be able to find a home to move into, consider a newly built home. Let’s connect today so you have a trusted real estate advisor to guide you through the sale of your house and discuss your homebuying options.
If you’re looking to buy or sell a house, chances are you’ve heard talk about today’s rising home prices. And while this increase in home values is great news for sellers, you may be wondering what the future holds. Will prices continue to rise with time, or should you expect them to fall?
To answer that question, let’s first understand a few terms you may be hearing right now.
Appreciation is an increase in the value of an asset.
Depreciation is a decrease in the value of an asset.
Deceleration is when something happens at a slower pace.
It’s important to note home prices have increased, or appreciated, for 114 straight months. To find out if that trend may continue, look to the experts. Pulsenomics surveyed over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts asking for their five-year projections. In terms of what lies ahead, experts say the market may see some slight deceleration, but not depreciation.
Here’s the forecast for the next few years:As the graph above shows, prices are expected to continue to rise, just not at the same pace we’ve seen over the last year. Over 100 experts agree, there is no expectation for price depreciation. As the arrows indicate, each number is an increase, which means prices will rise each year.
Bill McBride, author of the blog Calculated Risk, also expects deceleration, but not depreciation:
“My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.7% is probably close to a peak, and that year-over-year price increases will slow later this year.”
“. . . home price appreciation is on the cusp of flipping to a deceleratingtrend.”
A recent article from realtor.com indicates you should expect:
“. . . annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, . . .”
What Does This Deceleration Mean for You?
What experts are projecting for the years ahead is more in line with the historical norm for appreciation. According to data from Black Knight, the average annual appreciation from 1995-2020 is 4.1%. As you can see from the chart above, the expert forecasts are closer to that pace, which means you should see appreciation at a level that’s aligned with a more normal year.
If you’re a buyer, don’t expect a sudden or drastic drop in home prices – experts say it won’t happen. Instead, think about your homeownership goals and consider purchasing a home before prices rise further.
If you’re a seller, the continued home price appreciation is good news for the value of your house. Work with an agent to list your house for the right price based on market conditions.
Bottom Line
Experts expect price deceleration, not price depreciation over the coming years. Let’s connect to talk through what’s happening in the housing market today, where things are headed, and what it means for you.
Let me start by saying that I am excited for you. The only reason that you would be reading this is because you have determined that owning a home may be right for you. It means that you are at least exploring the possibilities and considering what life would look like as a homeowner. That alone is exciting and a proposition that is full of promise.
Your reading this also means that I have a chance to earn the opportunity to help you to achieve Your Own Personal American Dream. One of the reasons that I love my job is because I get to help people just like you create and shape their lifestyle through homeownership. It is truly an honor when someone allows me that opportunity. So let me share with you how I can help.
All of our services start with a quick 15 – 30 minute coaching call which is a basic introductory consultation. On that call you take out your dream paint brush and start painting a picture of what your American Dream looks like. I will ask you some specific questions about your plans and qualifications and, if we both decide at the end of that call that we should move to the next stage, we will schedule your comprehensive buyer consultation.
Depending on your experience as a homeowner/future homeowner, right off the bat you will notice that my approach is much different than 98% or more of real estate agents that you may have talked to or even worked with in the past. Since 1989 I have been a full time REALTOR® and have had the privilege of helping hundreds of families, couples, and individuals buy and sell homes. I discovered along the way that the more time taken in planning and preparing up front, the more successful the home purchase or sale would be in the end.
As your HousingCoach℠ I will help you to develop and solid home buying game plan which will incorporate your current circumstances and your plans, goals, and dreams for the next 5, 10, or even 20 or more years into the future. Your success as a home buyer can be measured in how well you are equipped and prepared to find the home that best fits your plan, compete against other home buyers, negotiate with the seller from a place of strength, and complete the transaction with as few hassles as possible.
Once we decide to work together I will help you to build out your Home Buying Game Plan, assemble your Home Buying Real Estate Team, structure and activate an automated Home Search Process, prepare you to have the best competitive advantage, negotiate on your behalf to get the best possible deal, and coordinate all of the transaction requirements and activities until the deal is closed.
My goal is that in the process of helping you to achieve Your Personal American Dream, that you are provided a personal level of service such that you feel compelled to refer me and my services to your family, friends, co-workers, and people you care about. That is how I will know I did my job well.
The best advice carries across multiple areas of life. When it comes to homebuying, a few simple tips can help you stay on track.
Because of increased demand, you’ll need to be patient and embrace compromises during your search. Then, once you’ve fallen in love, commit by putting your best offer forward.
If you’re looking to buy a home this year, let’s connect so you have a dedicated partner and teammate to help you find the one.
The last 18 months changed what many buyers are looking for in a home. Recently, the American Institute of Architects released their AIA Home Design Trends Survey results for Q3 2021. The survey reveals the following:
70% of respondents want more outdoor living space
69% of respondents want a home office (48% wanted multiple offices)
46% of respondents want a multi-function room/flexible space
42% of respondents want an au pair/in-law suite
39% of respondents want an exercise room/yoga space
If you’re a homeowner who wants to add any of the above, you have two options: renovate your current house or buy a home that already has the spaces you desire. The decision you make could be determined by factors like:
A possible desire to relocate
The difference in the cost of a renovation versus a purchase
Finding an existing home or designing a new home that has exactly what you want (versus trying to restructure the layout of your current house)
In either case, you’ll need access to capital: the funds for the renovation or the down payment your next home would require. The great news is that the money you need probably already exists in your current home in the form of equity.
Home Equity Is Skyrocketing
The record-setting increases in home prices over the last two years dramatically improved homeowners’ equity. The graph below uses data from CoreLogic to show the average home equity gain in the first quarter of the last nine years:Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American,quantifies the amount of equity homeowners gained recently:
“Remember U.S. households own nearly $35 trillion in owner-occupied real estate, just over $11 trillion in debt, and the remaining ~$24 trillion in equity. In inflation adjusted terms, homeowners in Q2 had an average of $280,000 in equity- a historic high.”
As a homeowner, the money you need to purchase the perfect home or renovate your current house may be right at your fingertips. However, waiting to make your decision may increase the cost of tapping that equity.
If you decide to renovate, you’ll need to refinance (or take out an equity loan) to access the equity. If you decide to move instead and use your equity as a down payment, you’ll still need to mortgage the remaining difference between the down payment and the cost of your next home.
Mortgage rates are forecast to increase over the next year. Waiting to leverage your equity will probably mean you’ll pay more to do so. According to the latest data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), almost 57% of current mortgage holders have a mortgage rate of 4% or below. If you’re one of those homeowners, you can keep your mortgage rate under 4% by doing it now. If you’re one of the 43% of homeowners with a mortgage rate over 4%, you may be able to do a cash-out refinance or buy a more expensive home without significantly increasing your monthly payment.
First Step: Determine the Amount of Equity in Your Home
If you’re ready to either redesign your current house or find an existing or newly constructed home that has everything you want, the first thing you need to do is determine how much equity you have in your current home. To do that, you’ll need two things:
The current mortgage balance on your home
The current value of your home
You can probably find the mortgage balance on your monthly mortgage statement. To find the current market value of your house, you can pay several hundreds of dollars for an appraisal, or you can contact a local real estate professional who will be able to present to you, at no charge, a professional equity assessment report.
Bottom Line
If the past 18 months have refocused your thoughts on what you want from your house, now may be the time to either renovate or make a move to the perfect home.
Today’s payment-to-income ratio is more affordable than the average over the last 25 years. Given that context, we can see that American households still have the same ability to be homeowners as their parents did 20 years ago.
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